The Big Brazilian Gun Experiment

Under President Jair Bolsonaro’s term in office, Brazil was subject to a quite unique public policy experiment. With rampant crime and homicide rates, the Brazilian president advocated for relaxing Brazil’s gun ownership laws and therefore arming a significant proportion of civil society. Many of his critics predicted catastrophe and decried the president’s plans, saying that such reckless militarism would cost human lives dearly. Defying his critics, Bolsonaro pursued his plans and facilitated gun ownership to a great extent. Now, four years later, the data is in, and it turns out Brazil’s unusual gun experiment has led to quite unexpected results. Whilst gun ownership has increased dramatically in the past few years, Brazil’s murder rate has fallen significantly, contrary to many of the pessimistic predictions. Is it therefore possible to fight crime with extended gun ownership? Is the decreasing murder rate due to civilian armament? What does cross-country data show? The results are nothing short of surprising.